Grand Rapids Business Daily

What needs to happen to make the end of a recession official?

What is the official signal our government uses to determine when a recession ends? Is it based off of unemployment figures? 2 consecutive periods of GDP growth? It is easy to find out what determines the beginning of a recession, but I have not been able to find out what signals the official end of a recession.

Public Comments

1. gorge bush,dick cheny,john mccain have to die in a freak acident with an airplane that crashes in arizona and causes crude oil to erupt from the ground and trillions of barrels of oil are collected bringing gas to 67 cents a gallon that im sure of!!!
2. Positive growth in GDP. Unemployment figures lag in the recovery, so they would be misleading.
3. The NBER dates recessions, but they are backward looking. They did not say the recession started in dec 2007 until late last year. see http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html However if the third quarter GDP shows positive growth as expected most people will consider it a over. The quarter ends in September 30 but the numbers will not be available until early November.
4. Consecutive periods of growth in the GDP. I am not sure if it is two or more. However, I know it must be at least two. The periods are quarters, (three months each).
5. Is there a need to an official end of recession? I believe that it is up to every single person to bear in mind that recession is over so that it will really be over. The right mindset can do people good during recession and this will also be the factor to decide if the recession is over. Think it for existence.